Mad Max, Marxism or a Middle Way? Life Beyond Oil

I’ll start this week’s blog by stating that, by nature, I’m a glass half full sort of bloke (preferably pinot noir…organic of course and from France!). Which means, in terms of the question above, I want to believe that we can find a route to life beyond oil that avoids the extremes of anarchy and apocalypse on the one hand and a state-dominated society on the other. This is probably a version of transition towns where ‘local’ becomes more important .
However, if I sit down and analyse the position I become more despondent. Why? Firstly, most individuals are ‘short- termists’ in view and by nature. This doesn’t mean they are not interested or don’t care about climate change (although according to a weekend poll a significant proportion in the UK are still in denial) as they want their kids to have a future. However, they are focused on the today – a job, feeding the family, getting their kids a good education and having a bit of fun along the way. This means that getting them to start thinking about the steps they as individuals need to take in the next decade to reduce oil dependency is difficult and will only happen as a result of a combination of incentives, taxes, education and changes to infrastructure. Even then it is a challenge – witness the problems governments have faced in getting people to face up to the need to save for retirement
Secondly, governments usually only have a 5 year time horizon which restricts their ability to think outside the standard Whitehall box and act creatively unless there is a crisis. There is a crying need to start to moving the tax system to one based on carbon usage, yet little appears to be happening in this area. Instead, they are looking for more of the same to try and raise revenue. I was hugely disappointed to hear this morning that the Chancellor is considering increasing the rate of National Insurance, an employment tax, to raise revenue – rather short-sighted at a time when there is a need to encourage employment. So, while I admire Gordon Brown’s stance on Climate Change on the world stage I’m hugely disappointed with what the government has(n’t) done. Why are we still contemplating a third run-way at Heathrow
Thirdly, whatever comes out of Copenhagen, demand for oil and other raw materials will continue to rise as China, India and the rest of the developed world continue to grow their economies. The need to satisfy demands at home will increase the risk of conflict over raw materials, water and food.
To finish on a more cheery note, I do think that technology offers hope. Developments in electric cars, renewables and the introduction of more efficient heating, lighting and other equipment will help us cope with life after. But will it be enough to avoid Mad Max?